Smoke-Free Products Nearing 50% of the Nicotine Market Thanks to Tobacco and Vaping Companies But In Spite of the Actions of Most Tobacco Control Groups

A new report from the nation's leading tobacco market expert - Bonnie Herzog at Goldman Sachs - reveals that smoke-free nicotine products now account for 48% of the overall nicotine market and are projected to comprise 75% of the market within 10 years. Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of the smoke-free market is also tobacco-free, meaning that not only are combustible tobacco products on the decline but tobacco products themselves are on the decline. The major players in the smoke-free, tobacco-free nicotine market are e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches.

The Rest of the Story

Here's the sad part of the story. This transition from combustible cigarettes to smoke-free, tobacco-free electronic cigarettes and nicotine pouches is almost entirely due to innovations from tobacco and vaping companies, not because of the hard work of tobacco control and public health organizations. In fact, most tobacco control groups have tried to obstruct, rather than promote, this miraculous, live-saving transition. The rest of the story is that this public health miracle is due to innovations within the tobacco and vaping industries and it occurred in spite of, not because of the actions of tobacco control and health groups.

When Massachusetts initiated its landmark anti-smoking program in 1993, our slogan was "Let's Make Smoking History." At the time, I thought that was a goal that would never be achieved. Thirty-three years later, that dream is starting to come true. But the reason it's coming true is not because Massachusetts and other states have acted to promote a market transition away from combustible tobacco products. The sad truth is that the opposite is the case. Most tobacco control groups, health groups, and policy makers have done everything in their power to block this transition. Their attacks on e-cigarettes and now, nicotine pouches, have hindered rather than helped progress in reducing morbidity and mortality from smoking, which is still the leading preventable cause of death in the United States. 

While youth vaping is a public health problem, its negative impacts are dwarfed by the life-saving gains resulting from the decimation of the combustible tobacco market. Moreover, contrary to the actions of the mainstream tobacco control groups, we can address the problem of youth vaping without precluding adult access to the much safer, smoke-free, tobacco-free alternatives. We don't have to cut off our nose to spite our face. And in fact, current efforts to address youth vaping have harmed the public's health more than they have improved it. 

The current U.S. regulatory system for nicotine products is backwards. It prohibits or restricts the safest forms of nicotine while promoting the use of the most deadly form: cigarette smoking. And the reason for this backwards form of regulation is the advocacy done by the leading tobacco control groups, which did the cigarette companies a huge favor by trying to eliminate most or all e-cigarettes from the market while doing nothing to restrict the most harmful consumer product on the market.

The rest of the story is that the mainstream tobacco control groups have largely squandered an opportunity to promote what is potentially one of the most substantial and miraculous public health advances of our time: making smoking history.