New Data from New York State Show that Youth Smoking is at Its Lowest Level in Recorded History; Anti-Nicotine Groups Continue to Claim that Vaping is a Gateway to Smoking

New data from the New York State Department of Health show that youth cigarette smoking is at its lowest level in recorded history (meaning ever since youth smoking prevalence began to measured in surveys). Only 2.4% of high school students in New York State reported smoking cigarettes in 2024. E-cigarette use among high school students continued its sharp decline, dropping from 27.4% in 2018 to 18.7% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2024. Overall "tobacco use" (which is actually a measure of tobacco use plus non-tobacco e-cigarette use) dropped from 30.6% in 2018 to 17.0% in 2024.

Meanwhile, many nicotine researchers and anti-nicotine organizations continue to tell the public that youth vaping is a gateway to the initiation of cigarette smoking and that youth vaping is leading to a new epidemic of smoking that is undermining the progress we have made over the past two decades. 

For example, if you go to the Johns Hopkins Medicine website, you'll find an article entitled "Will Vaping Lead Teens to Smoking Cigarettes?" The article answers the question affirmatively. In the article, a professor of medicine at Hopkins states that: "I think perhaps the #1 concern about vaping right now is the so-called gateway effect." And he claims that: "We might be causing the next smoking epidemic through young people getting addicted to electronic cigarettes early in life." 

The Rest of the Story

The claims of many nicotine researchers and anti-nicotine groups, including the conclusion expressed by this Johns Hopkins physician, are not consistent with the actual data. If it were true that youth vaping was a gateway to smoking, then the large increase in youth vaping that peaked in 2018 would certainly have resulted in an increase in smoking in subsequent years and would have been very apparent in surveys conducted over the past six years. Instead, just the opposite is happening. Youth are smoking in lower and lower numbers than ever before.  

If anything, the data show that as electronic cigarette use among youth took off, the rate of decline in smoking accelerated. These data refute the contention of so many anti-nicotine groups and researchers that vaping is problematic because it leads to kids turning to cigarettes. The evidence demonstrates that vapes are largely a substitute for cigarettes, not a gateway to cigarette smoking.

The question is: When will these researchers and groups stop making these claims that have now been definitively disproved? When more data comes out showing that youth smoking is on its way out? Probably not. The fact that even with the scientific evidence we have now they are still making these unsupported claims suggests that no amount of scientific evidence will change their public statements. 

This is so disappointing to me because public health is an evidence-based field and we are supposed to change our opinions and positions if the evidence changes. 

John Maynard Keynes is quoted as having said: "When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?" With regard to most of the anti-nicotine groups--the mainstream of the tobacco control movement--I think we have our answer.